India’s purchases of Russian crude are expected to climb in September, even as a 50 percent tariff imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump comes into effect, Reuters reported Thursday (28 August 2025).
According to three market sources, Indian refiners—primarily Reliance Industries and Rosneft-backed Nayara Energy—plan to boost Russian crude imports by 10–20 percent, equal to an additional 150,000–300,000 barrels per day compared with August. The sources, who cited early trade data, requested anonymity as they were not authorised to discuss the matter publicly.
Russian producers are likely to offer deeper discounts to secure buyers abroad, with domestic refining capacity constrained after Ukrainian drone strikes damaged multiple facilities near Moscow. Without sustained purchases from India, Moscow could struggle to maintain export volumes, undermining oil revenues critical to funding its budget and war effort in Ukraine.
Neither Reliance nor Nayara commented on the matter, while India’s oil ministry also did not provide a response.
A Strategic Lifeline
Since Western sanctions were introduced following the Ukraine invasion in 2022, India has emerged as the single largest buyer of Russian crude, reaping the benefits of lower prices. However, the move has drawn criticism from Washington. Earlier this week, Trump raised tariffs on Indian goods to 50 percent, accusing New Delhi of exploiting discounted oil flows.
India insists it is working diplomatically to address the tariff issue. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has also engaged with global leaders, including Russian President Vladimir Putin, to strengthen strategic partnerships.
Washington has accused India of profiteering, while Indian officials argue that Western nations themselves continue to purchase Russian commodities on a large scale, revealing what they call a double standard.
Supply Pressures
Recent Ukrainian strikes have disabled nearly 17 percent of Russia’s refining output, leaving Moscow with more crude than it can process domestically. India imported about 1.5 million barrels per day in the first three weeks of August—flat from July but slightly below January–June averages. These volumes account for almost 1.5 percent of global supply and meet roughly 40 percent of India’s energy needs. China and Turkey also remain significant buyers.
India’s reliance on Russian oil has come at the expense of more costly OPEC cargoes, whose market share fell sharply before showing some recovery in 2024. For September, traders said Russian Urals crude has been offered at $2–3 per barrel below Brent, cheaper than August discounts of $1.50—the narrowest since 2022.
Analysts believe India will keep Russian supplies central to its mix unless global trade rules shift dramatically. Brokerage CLSA noted that there is “little chance of India halting Russian imports” unless a worldwide ban is enforced. A sudden stop, they warned, could wipe one million barrels per day from the market and drive global crude prices close to $100.
The real impact of the new U.S. tariffs, and a tighter EU price cap set at $47.60 per barrel effective 2 September, will likely be felt in shipments arriving from October onwards. Both measures are designed to squeeze Moscow’s oil revenues, though traders expect India to continue buying unless geopolitical or economic realities change significantly.
