Toronto: Following another significant defeat in a federal by-election, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government could soon face a potential no-confidence motion, possibly as early as next week.
The defeat occurred in the Quebec riding of LaSalle-Émard-Verdun, where Bloc Québécois candidate Louis-Philippe Sauvé won against Liberal Party candidate Laura Palestini. This by-election was prompted by the resignation of former Cabinet Minister David Lametti, who had secured the seat in the 2021 federal election with a nearly 20 percent margin.
This loss follows a similar defeat in Toronto-St. Paul’s in June, signaling Trudeau’s declining political fortunes. His next hurdle will be surviving the anticipated no-confidence motion from the opposition Conservative Party, whose leader, Pierre Poilievre, declared on social media: “Taxes up. Costs up. Crime’s up. Time’s up.”
Poilievre is pushing for early elections, and recent polling by Abacus Data suggests his party has strong momentum. If elections were held now, 43 percent of committed voters would support the Conservatives, while only 22 percent would back the Liberals. Modeling by Raymond Liu for the National Post suggests that such a result would see the Liberals fall to fourth place in the House of Commons, behind the Conservatives, Bloc Québécois, and New Democratic Party.
Despite these setbacks, Trudeau has not indicated any intention to resign. Instead, he urged voters to stay engaged, emphasizing the stakes of the next election, currently scheduled for October next year. However, a no-confidence vote in the House of Commons could trigger early elections. The Liberals, holding 154 of 336 seats, would need support from either the Bloc Québécois or the NDP to stay in power. Earlier this month, the NDP withdrew from the Supply and Confidence Agreement, putting Trudeau’s political future in jeopardy.
