A recently withdrawn Niti Aayog paper on US-India agricultural trade had proposed selectively reducing tariffs in ways that would benefit India, including on genetically modified (GM) soyabean and corn. The paper also recommended liberalizing domestic agricultural markets—a central feature of the now-repealed farm laws that faced strong opposition from farmer unions.
Authored by economists Ramesh Chand and Raka Saxena, the paper acknowledged the challenges arising from the reciprocal tariffs announced by the Trump administration in April. Nonetheless, it highlighted potential areas for India to benefit, including through regulatory reforms aimed at improving the acceptance of Indian agricultural exports in the US. The paper was initially published on Niti Aayog’s website on May 30 but was removed within a week.
“The ongoing negotiations between the two countries offer clear scope for reform and mutual benefit,” the authors noted. Chand is a member and Saxena a senior adviser at Niti Aayog, the Indian government’s premier policy think tank.
A key sticking point in bilateral trade talks has been Washington’s insistence that India open its market to US-grown GM soyabean and corn, which are produced in surplus. India, however, prohibits GM food imports and has refrained from approving domestically developed GM crops like mustard.
Despite this, the authors suggested that India could consider reducing tariffs on US GM produce. Noting India’s position as the world’s largest importer of edible oils and the US’s significant soybean export surplus, the paper proposed that India could offer tariff concessions on soybean oil to address trade imbalance concerns, without undermining local production.
The US continues to seek wider access for its agricultural products in India, which currently enjoys a substantial trade surplus in farm goods. According to the paper, India’s total agricultural exports stood at around $5.7 billion over the past three years ending in 2024.
Failure to conclude a trade deal by the July 9 deadline set by President Trump would result in higher US tariffs—potentially rising to 26%—on Indian exports. These tariffs, which are essentially taxes on imports, directly influence trade volumes and competitiveness.
Additionally, the paper suggested that India could consider reducing tariffs on goods that do not threaten domestic producers. US apples, for example, command premium prices in Indian markets due to superior quality, shelf life, and availability in off-seasons. Tariff reductions on such items could be explored, the authors argued.
Despite multiple queries, Niti Aayog’s CEO BVR Subrahmanyam, Vice-Chairman Suman Berry, and Ramesh Chand did not provide any comment regarding the report’s content or its withdrawal. A spokesperson for the think tank stated she was unaware of the matter.
While recognizing the need to protect farm incomes, the paper emphasized the importance of medium-term structural reforms to enhance India’s global agricultural competitiveness. The agriculture sector accounts for nearly 18% of the country’s GDP.
The authors also advocated for reforms in agricultural markets, particularly streamlining laws that regulate the sale and purchase of farm produce—currently governed by state-run Agricultural Produce Market Committees (APMCs). These suggestions echoed the provisions of the three farm laws passed and later repealed by the Modi government in 2021 following mass farmer protests. Farmers feared that deregulation would expose them to exploitation by large agribusinesses.
To promote exports, the paper called for liberalizing APMC regulations, facilitating direct procurement, and supporting agro-processing clusters. While the sensitive dairy sector was largely avoided, the authors noted potential for greater market access, citing the presence of Indian dairy giant Amul in the US market.
Lastly, the paper warned of the declining share of food products in overall India-US trade, especially as India’s food production is projected to rise. This trend, the authors argued, would necessitate increasing the share of domestic agricultural output sold internationally, whether raw or processed.
