Russia has called for restraint in speculating about the cause of the Azerbaijan Airlines plane crash, emphasizing the importance of awaiting the official investigation’s findings.
“The investigation into the Azerbaijan Airlines crash is ongoing, and it is inappropriate to speculate before its conclusions are released,” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated on Thursday.
The crash involved an Embraer EMBR3.SA passenger jet near the city of Aktau in Kazakhstan on Wednesday, resulting in the deaths of 38 people. The aircraft had diverted from Russian airspace, an area recently defended by Moscow against Ukrainian drone attacks.
Speculation and Early Theories
The crash has ignited widespread speculation, including claims that the aircraft might have been downed by Russian air defenses—a theory Moscow has categorically denied.
Authorities in Kazakhstan have reported that 38 bodies were recovered from the crash site, and 29 survivors were hospitalized. The aircraft had diverted to Kazakhstan due to adverse weather in Russia and was originally en route to Makhachkala before redirecting to Aktau, 310 kilometers east across the Caspian Sea.
Preliminary findings suggest a possible bird strike, though aviation experts have expressed skepticism. Social media footage from the crash site has raised doubts, with some suggesting the damage is inconsistent with a bird collision. Alternative theories, including the possibility of a missile strike, have surfaced but remain unverified.
Peskov reiterated the importance of awaiting official conclusions, saying, “Speculation at this stage is premature and unhelpful.”
Passenger and Crew Information
The Embraer 190 was carrying 62 passengers, including citizens of Azerbaijan, Russia, and other nations, along with five crew members. Azerbaijan Airlines confirmed the aircraft had undergone a comprehensive technical inspection in October, with no reported issues before the flight. Airline President Samir Rzayev emphasized that a thorough investigation is underway and declined to comment on speculation about the crash’s cause.
The airline has suspended all flights to Grozny and Makhachkala until the investigation concludes, prompting questions about potential safety concerns in the region’s airspace. Independent aviation expert Andrei Litvinov noted, “Such a decision suggests significant concerns about airspace safety.”
Conspiracy Theories and Regional Context
The crash has fueled conspiracy theories, including claims that the plane may have been hit by a Russian anti-aircraft missile amid heightened regional tensions. Makhachkala and Grozny have recently been targeted by Ukrainian drone strikes, amplifying speculation about the possibility of an accidental or deliberate attack.
Reports from sources like The Wall Street Journal and aviation safety consultants Osprey have pointed to the timing and location of the crash relative to recent drone activity. However, these theories remain speculative, and Kazakh emergency services stress that the investigation is ongoing.
As investigators work to uncover the truth, authorities have urged all parties to avoid jumping to conclusions until official findings are released.
