Russia continues to count on U.S. President Donald Trump to broker an acceptable peace deal in Ukraine, though it remains prepared to prolong the war if negotiations falter, according to sources in Moscow familiar with the situation.
The Kremlin is unfazed by Trump’s threat to impose punitive secondary sanctions on Russian oil due to stalled ceasefire talks, the sources said. However, President Vladimir Putin sees Trump as his best chance to bring the war to an end and is committed to maintaining diplomatic engagement, they added, speaking on condition of anonymity.
Despite pledging a swift resolution to Europe’s most significant conflict since World War II, Trump recently expressed frustration over the slow progress of talks, stating he was “pissed off” with Putin. However, he later softened his stance, saying he believes the Russian leader will “fulfill his part of the deal.”
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov, when asked for comment, stated that Russia would “prefer to continue mutual efforts to find a settlement,” acknowledging that diplomacy requires both time and effort. “Everyone would rather talk than fight—not just talk, but be heard. This is the reality with the current U.S. administration,” he said.
Meanwhile, Putin’s economic envoy, Kirill Dmitriev—who is sanctioned by the U.S.—revealed that he has been holding meetings in Washington with government officials. “Opponents of rapprochement fear that Russia and the U.S. might find common ground, leading to better mutual understanding and cooperation in both international affairs and the economy,” Dmitriev said on Thursday.
Moscow is holding out for additional concessions from Washington, including partial sanctions relief and a halt to arms deliveries to Ukraine. During last month’s U.S.-Russia talks in Saudi Arabia, a deal was struck to pause attacks on Black Sea shipping. However, Russia later made the agreement contingent on reconnecting one of its major state banks to the SWIFT global messaging system.
Trump aides, including his special envoy Steve Witkoff, had expressed optimism about progress in negotiations with Russia. The White House had originally aimed for a truce agreement by April 20, though that now appears unlikely. Additionally, discussions of a potential Trump-Putin summit have recently quieted.
On Monday, Russia announced the conscription of 160,000 men in its largest spring draft in 14 years, though the Defense Ministry claimed they would not be sent to Ukraine. Meanwhile, Moscow and Kyiv have traded accusations over violations of an agreed-upon pause in attacks on energy infrastructure, brokered by Trump.
Although Putin has voiced interest in striking a deal with Trump, he has remained firm on his key conditions. He insists that Ukraine must abandon its NATO membership aspirations, limit the size of its military, and recognize Russia’s control over occupied territories in eastern and southern Ukraine following the February 2022 invasion.
Ukraine and its European allies—as well as the Biden administration—view Russia’s demands as an attempt to subjugate its neighbor.
While Trump has already made several concessions to Moscow, fully accepting Putin’s terms could expose him to accusations of weakness. Still, ending the war remains one of his signature campaign promises.
Russia has attempted to entice Washington with economic cooperation, particularly in the Arctic and rare earth mining, as part of a broader strategy to rebuild relations. Additionally, Trump has been pressuring Ukraine to accept an economic partnership that would grant the U.S. control over future investments in the country’s infrastructure and natural resources.
Notably, Russia was one of the few nations excluded from Trump’s tariff announcement on Wednesday. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent later clarified to Fox News that this was due to existing sanctions having already cut trade ties, though the U.S. did impose a 10% tariff on Ukraine.
“The Kremlin is seeking a direct meeting between Putin and Trump to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine—on Trump’s terms—while securing provisions that would leave Ukraine permanently weakened,” wrote Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, in an analysis with colleagues from the organization. However, he added that Moscow “was prepared to continue fighting before Trump took office and remains ready to do so today.”
Despite Russia’s incremental territorial gains and superior manpower and firepower, Western analysts estimate that Moscow is suffering significant losses, exceeding 1,000 soldiers per day.
Meanwhile, a bipartisan group of 50 U.S. senators has introduced a new sanctions package proposing a 500% tariff on any nation purchasing Russian oil, natural gas, petroleum products, or uranium—should Putin refuse to engage in meaningful ceasefire negotiations or violate any future agreement.
Yet, the Kremlin remains defiant, believing that after three years of sanctions, it can withstand further economic pressure. “These new sanctions won’t be any more effective than the previous ones,” insisted sources familiar with Kremlin strategy.
“These measures will hurt other nations more than they will affect Russia, particularly those that rely on our oil and gas,” Anatoly Aksakov, head of the State Duma’s financial market committee, said in a phone interview. “That includes China, East Asia, and other developing economies.”
