El Niño has officially emerged across the equatorial Pacific, raising concerns over a fresh cycle of droughts, floods and extreme temperature swings that could disrupt agriculture, energy supplies and livelihoods across the world.
The climate pattern was formally confirmed by the Japan Meteorological Agency, marking the first El Niño event since 2023. Meteorologists expect the phenomenon to strengthen over the coming months and potentially develop into one of the most intense events on record before lasting at least until December.
El Niño occurs when sea surface temperatures across parts of the Pacific Ocean become unusually warm, triggering shifts in global weather systems. These changes often affect rainfall, crop production and power demand across several continents.
Its effects are already beginning to emerge in different parts of the world. India has witnessed a delayed monsoon onset, while Peru temporarily suspended parts of its fishing season because of warming ocean conditions.
Historically, strong El Niño episodes have caused widespread damage. The 1997 event killed more than 30,000 people globally and caused an estimated $100 billion in economic losses. A 2023 study by Dartmouth College estimated that the long term economic fallout from El Niño events can run into trillions of dollars worldwide.
The intensity of El Niño is measured by how much warmer the equatorial Pacific becomes compared to average temperatures. When the anomaly crosses 2 degrees Celsius, the event is generally classified as a very strong or “Super El Niño.”
According to commodity intelligence firm Marex, major El Niño events have historically reduced production of commodities such as palm oil, coffee, cocoa, cotton and grains including wheat and rice.
Weather disruptions are expected to become more severe as the event peaks around December or January. Forecasters warn that southern parts of the United States could experience a wetter and cooler winter, while regions in Australia may face drought conditions and an increased wildfire risk.
El Niño can also influence the Atlantic hurricane season. The atmospheric changes associated with the phenomenon usually increase wind shear over the Atlantic Ocean, making it harder for hurricanes and tropical storms to form and intensify.
That does not mean storms will be absent altogether. Current forecasts from government agencies, universities and private weather firms suggest the Atlantic could still witness around 14 named storms this year, which is close to the long term seasonal average.
Many climate experts are closely watching whether this El Niño evolves into a “super” event later this year. In the United States, forecasters primarily track ocean temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region of the Pacific to determine the strength of El Niño conditions.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration defines El Niño as conditions where sea surface temperatures remain at least 0.5 degrees Celsius above average for five overlapping three month periods.
