Congress continues to be the weakest component in the Mahagathbandhan as early Bihar Assembly election trends show the National Democratic Alliance cruising past the majority mark, with the grand alliance struggling to match NDA’s momentum.
Alliance Performance Breakdown
According to India Today’s election dashboard at 10 AM, the Mahagathbandhan leads in 77 seats out of 243, with RJD at 58, Congress at just 14, CPI(ML) (Liberation) at 1, VIP at 1, and CPI at 1. In contrast, the NDA appears well positioned to achieve its ambitious “160 paar” target.
RJD’s Decline
The RJD, which secured 114 seats in the previous assembly, currently leads in only 58 seats according to early trends despite Tejashwi Yadav’s vigorous campaign against Chief Minister Nitish Kumar. Tejashwi’s campaign, which capitalized on anti-incumbency sentiment and promoted the ‘Bihari youth for Bihar’ narrative, has so far failed to translate into decisive electoral advantage.
Congress’s Persistent Weakness
Mahagathbandhan’s performance highlights a persistent structural issue—Congress continues as the weaker link in the alliance. In 2020 Bihar Assembly elections, Congress contested 70 seats but won only 19, while RJD and Left parties outperformed expectations.
CPI(ML) (Liberation) won 12 of 19 seats contested, and the Left collectively secured 16 of 29, demonstrating far higher strike rates than Congress. The Mahagathbandhan then ended with 110 seats, trailing NDA’s 125.
Current Election Mirrors 2020
This election appears to mirror that trend. Congress is contesting 61 seats but leads in only 14, underlining the party’s inability to emerge as decisive force within the alliance. RJD, meanwhile, continues dominating Mahagathbandhan’s tally, reinforcing its position as principal partner.
Strategic Implications
For Congress, the poor showing raises questions about its relevance in Bihar politics and its contribution to opposition alliances. The party’s inability to convert seat allocations into victories has consistently weakened the Mahagathbandhan’s electoral prospects.
The early trends signal a difficult outcome for Congress and continuing consolidation of NDA’s position in Bihar politics. RJD’s diminished performance compared to its 2020 tally suggests the alliance faces challenges beyond just Congress’s weakness, including effective NDA campaigning and vote consolidation strategies.
