Saad al Kaabi has warned that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East could have serious consequences for the global economy. Speaking to the Financial Times in an interview, the energy minister said the war could significantly affect economic growth worldwide.
He said that if the conflict continues for several weeks, global GDP growth will be affected and energy prices across the world are likely to rise sharply.
The minister also predicted shortages of certain products as disruptions in supply chains begin to affect manufacturing. According to him, factories that depend on steady supplies of raw materials could struggle to maintain production, potentially triggering a chain reaction across industries.
The current conflict in the Middle East began after joint attacks by the United States and Israel on Iran, followed by retaliatory strikes from Tehran targeting American military bases in the region, including locations in Qatar.
Kaabi warned that crude oil prices could surge to as much as 150 dollars per barrel within two to three weeks if tankers and merchant vessels are unable to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway used for transporting large volumes of the world’s oil supply.
He also said natural gas prices could climb to 40 dollars per million British thermal units, nearly four times the levels seen before the conflict began.
Meanwhile, Brent crude rose to 87 dollars on Friday, its highest level since April 2024, with crude prices climbing about four percent during the day.
Gulf exporters may halt deliveries
Speaking about energy exporters in the Gulf region, Kaabi said several of them may soon declare force majeure, a legal clause that allows companies to avoid liability for failing to meet contractual obligations due to unforeseen circumstances.
He said exporters that have not yet invoked force majeure are likely to do so in the coming days. Otherwise, they could face legal liability for failing to fulfil their contracts.
Kaabi’s comments underline growing concern about the economic consequences of the conflict. The warning comes as Donald Trump and Israeli officials have suggested the war could continue for weeks as they pursue efforts to dismantle Iran’s ruling system.
Disruption to Qatar’s LNG supplies
Kaabi, who also serves as chief executive of QatarEnergy, also addressed the situation in Qatar, the world’s second largest producer of liquefied natural gas. The country declared force majeure earlier this week after a strike on its Ras Laffan Industrial City.
He said production in Qatar would not restart until hostilities fully cease. According to Kaabi, it could take weeks or even months for the country to return to normal delivery schedules after an Iranian drone strike damaged its largest LNG facility.
Although Qatar sends only a limited portion of its gas exports to Europe, the minister warned that European countries could still face serious challenges. He said buyers in Asia are likely to outbid European nations for available gas supplies in global markets, especially if other Gulf producers struggle to meet their existing contractual commitments.
