It is politically ironic that the current turmoil in France was instigated by President Emmanuel Macron, who called for snap legislative elections. When questioned about his decision, Macron stated he wanted “clarification” from the electorate following his party’s heavy defeat in the European elections. Now, Macron has received the clarification he sought: France remains deeply divided among three blocs—the Left parties forming the New Popular Front, Macron’s centrist and allied parties, and Marine Le Pen’s National Rally. None of these blocs have anywhere near an absolute majority.
Participants wave French national tricolors during an election night rally following the first results of the second round of France’s legislative election at Place de la Republique in Paris on July 7, 2024. (Photo by Emmanuel Dunand / AFP) (AFP)
Participants wave French national tricolors during an election night rally following the first results of the second round of France’s legislative election at Place de la Republique in Paris on July 7, 2024. (Photo by Emmanuel Dunand / AFP) (AFP)
As expected, French voters delivered a fragmented verdict in the legislative elections held on June 30 and July 7, resulting in a hung parliament. The real surprise, however, was the New Popular Front securing the most votes in the second and final round. The far-right National Rally, which was expected to come first, finished third due to a concerted effort by other political parties forming a Republican Front against it. This meant that over 200 candidates from far-left and center-right parties withdrew from the race to avoid splitting votes.
Le Pen and her party may feel cheated, but her ultimate goal remains the presidential elections in three years, where she hopes to challenge Macron for the presidency. Macron now faces two options: he could invite the largest parliamentary group, the New Popular Front from the Left, to form a coalition government. If this fails, he might appoint a technocratic government to govern for a year, after which new legislative elections could be called. Either way, France is entering a period of significant political instability.
The New Popular Front’s agenda is quite radical, proposing to reduce the retirement age, increase minimum wages, reintroduce the wealth tax, and raise corporate taxes. France’s budget deficit and public debt, already high at 5.5% and 110% of GDP respectively, would increase significantly, leading to potential conflicts with Brussels.
The timing of the French elections could not be worse, given the fraught geopolitical situation globally. The war in Ukraine continues, the conflict in Gaza persists, and tensions in the East and South China Seas, as well as the Taiwan Strait, are escalating. This is all set against a backdrop of a divided America, a disruptive Russia, and an assertive China.
Observers note that France is not just any European country. It is the EU’s second-largest economy and, politically, the most significant if considering its UNSC membership, nuclear deterrence, and crucial role in the European project. Hence, political uncertainty in France will have substantial ramifications for the EU and beyond.
The political instability in France, combined with the struggles of the ruling coalition in Germany, weakens the EU geopolitically. This is particularly ironic, as European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen aimed for a strong “geopolitical European Commission” in 2019. With the possibility of Donald Trump returning to the US presidency, the EU has not been this divided in recent memory. China and Russia are undoubtedly pleased.
We are between two world orders, with progress towards a multipolar world being uneven and messy. An EU weakened geopolitically makes this transition even more challenging. India, a strong proponent of a multipolar world, might find its strategic space shrinking further due to this instability. With internal political turmoil in both France and Germany, the Franco-German motor will falter, negatively impacting the EU’s foreign and security policy. Serious differences between France and Brussels, particularly on issues like budget deficit and public debt, could become more pronounced with the New Popular Front’s tax-and-spend agenda.
As for Macron, he has three years remaining in his presidency and has made it clear he will not resign, continuing until his term ends in 2027. However, he may have to appoint a prime minister from the coalition of Left parties, leading to a cohabitation arrangement. Given the stark differences between Macron’s party manifesto and the New Popular Front’s platform, finding common ground will be challenging.
Even under normal circumstances, France is difficult to govern and reform. With a hung parliament and potential cohabitation, France has clearly entered a period of political limbo.
