Urad production is expected to face another challenging kharif season, with industry experts warning that delayed monsoon rains and growing competition from alternative crops could weigh on output for a fifth straight year. The anticipated decline is also likely to push India’s dependence on imports to record levels.
According to the latest government data, the area sown under urad was nearly 40% lower year on year as of June 19.
“The sustained decline in urad acreage is being driven by a combination of climate risks and poor economic incentives for farmers,” said Ajay Kedia, Head of Research at Kedia Advisory.
He explained that urad is particularly sensitive to changing weather conditions. “The crop is highly vulnerable to moisture stress. In recent years, irregular monsoon patterns, including prolonged dry spells during the growing stage and unseasonal rainfall near harvest, have significantly reduced yields and caused widespread crop losses,” Kedia said.
The fall in acreage has been reflected in domestic production. Urad output has dropped from 2.8 million tonnes in the 2021-22 crop year to 2.2 million tonnes in 2025-26.
Experts noted that farmers in key producing states such as Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Rajasthan, which together contribute around half of India’s urad production, have increasingly shifted towards other crops.
“Farmers now see crops like maize, soybean and millets as better options because they offer greater resilience to changing weather conditions and more stable returns,” Kedia said.
Soybean emerges as the biggest competitor
Industry experts believe soybean will remain the biggest challenge for urad cultivation this season.
“Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Rajasthan are major soybean-growing states as well, making it the biggest competing crop for urad,” said GK Sood, Chairman of KN Agri Resources Ltd.
He added that consistently strong soybean prices and government procurement support through Madhya Pradesh’s Bhavantar scheme, along with a similar programme in Maharashtra, are encouraging farmers to switch crops.
“Both soybean and urad require almost the same amount of irrigation, but soybean currently offers better price assurance, making it a more attractive choice for farmers,” Sood said.
India’s agriculture sector continues to rely heavily on monsoon rainfall, with nearly 52% of cultivated land dependent on rains and around one-fourth lacking irrigation facilities altogether.
The delayed monsoon has already raised concerns for the ongoing kharif season. As of June 26, the country was facing a rainfall deficit of 42%, increasing worries over sowing across several states.
Import dependence likely to reach record levels
Declining domestic production has increasingly been compensated through higher imports.
India’s urad imports have risen by nearly 72% over the past four years, increasing from 611,000 tonnes in 2022-23 to 1.05 million tonnes in 2025-26.
Rahul Chauhan, founder of agri commodity research firm IGrain India, said import dependence is expected to climb even further.
“Imports are likely to remain at historic highs, with volumes expected to stay around or even exceed 1.1 to 1.2 million tonnes during FY2026-27,” Chauhan said.
