Exit polls released Tuesday following Bihar’s second and final phase of voting suggest Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal United may reclaim its position as the dominant partner in the state’s ruling coalition. The Matrize exit poll projected JDU winning 67-75 seats compared to the Bharatiya Janata Party’s 65-73 seats—reversing the outcome from 2020 when BJP secured 74 seats against JDU’s 43.
The last time a Nitish Kumar-led party outperformed BJP in Bihar was 2000, when his Samata Party won 34 seats to BJP’s 67 under Sushil Kumar Modi’s leadership, though this occurred in undivided Bihar before Jharkhand’s formation.
NDA Alliance Expected to Retain Power
Despite the internal shift, exit polls overwhelmingly favor the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance retaining government, with Matrize predicting 147-167 seats for the coalition.
The opposition Mahagathbandhan is projected to win only 70-90 seats, while Prashant Kishor’s debut Jan Suraaj party appears to have underperformed expectations.
‘Little Brother’ No More
The 2020 results sparked speculation about Nitish Kumar’s political future, with analysts suggesting the 74-year-old might finally relinquish the chief minister’s post. At the time, Kumar himself acknowledged the unusual dynamic: “I was ready for a Chief Minister from the BJP since they had more MLAs, but there was serious pressure on me.”
If current projections hold, Nitish Kumar stands to extend his nearly two-decade tenure as chief minister, potentially positioning himself to become Bihar’s longest-serving chief minister.
Alliance History of Strategic Shifts
Nitish Kumar’s relationship with BJP has been characterized by calculated political maneuvering. Since 2013, he has alternated between BJP and the Rashtriya Janata Dal five times. His most recent switch occurred in January 2024, when he abandoned the INDIA opposition bloc—which he helped establish—after growing frustrated with Congress’s leadership role and internal power dynamics.
The anticipated turnaround from the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, where both JDU and BJP lost seats to Tejashwi Yadav’s opposition alliance, would mark a significant political recovery for Kumar.
