Toronto: Speculation is growing about the future of Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government after the New Democratic Party (NDP) withdrew its support on Wednesday, making mid-term elections seem increasingly likely.
The NDP had sustained the minority Liberal government through a supply-and-confidence agreement signed in March 2022. However, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh announced on Wednesday that the deal was “torn up.”
Trudeau’s weakened government now faces the immediate challenge of surviving the upcoming session of the House of Commons, set to begin on September 16. The opposition Conservatives, who hold a significant lead in the polls, are expected to push for a no-confidence vote, as indicated by their leader, Pierre Poilievre.
This could lead to snap elections ahead of the scheduled October 2025 federal polls. As Andrew McDougall, a political scientist at the University of Toronto’s Scarborough campus, explained, “While a fall election isn’t guaranteed, the breakdown of the Liberal-NDP deal makes it more likely. An election must happen before October 2025 regardless.”
However, Shinder Purewal, a political science professor at Kwantlen Polytechnic University in British Columbia, believes the NDP is unlikely to support a Conservative-led no-confidence vote. Purewal noted, “Jagmeet Singh’s withdrawal from the agreement doesn’t mean he will back a Conservative motion. His criticisms were more directed at Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives.”
Trudeau might also find other political lifelines, such as support from the Bloc Québécois, the third-largest party in the House with 32 seats, surpassing the NDP’s 24 seats.
“The withdrawal of support doesn’t necessarily spell the end for the government. Politics can shift rapidly,” added Professor Purewal.
The Liberals currently hold 154 seats in the 338-member House.
On Thursday, Singh criticized Trudeau for being “too tied to corporate interests,” suggesting early elections could be on the horizon. Conservatives have previously accused the NDP of propping up Trudeau’s government to ensure Singh qualifies for an MP’s pension by spring 2025.
Singh, speaking to reporters in Toronto, did not commit to any future confidence vote, stating, “We will evaluate each vote on its own and act in the best interests of Canadians.”
